It seems like just last year when we were all completely pleased with Ervin Santana being a nice rotation piece, something short of a star but better than filler. Oh wait, that was last year! A lot has happened to the longtime Angel pitcher since 2011, namely his brutal 2012 season. Santana wore out his extended welcome in Los Angeles, and now he and $1 million will be headed to the Kansas City Royals in exchange for minor league lefty Brandon Sisk.
We’ve already heard the Royals intend to shake things up a bit going into 2013 (they’ve already been linked to Anibal Sanchez), and this move is an interesting shift in that direction. Santana won’t come cheap, as the Angels pulled the trigger on the pitcher’s $13 million option for next season before getting the deal done. What will the Royals get in their new 30-year-old starter? It’s hard to say. Four years ago, Santana had a wonderful season that seemed to leave him poised as a future top-of-the-rotation option. He spent the next season struggling and hurt before turning in a pair of solid but unspectacular seasons in 2010 and 2011. Then came 2012, a summer that saw Santana post a 5.16 ERA, 5.63 FIP, 4.48 xFIP, and 1.97 HR/9. At least there wasn’t a marked difference in his strikeout and walk rates, but that’s an ugly year. In fact, FanGraphs values it at -0.9 WAR. Gross!
Obviously the Royals feel that Santana is on his way to bouncing back into relevancy if they’re willing to spend this much money on him for 2013. It’s hard to say exactly what caused Santana to slide from solid to diarrhea; his velocity remained roughly where it was the year before, his BABIP was actually low (.241), and his ground ball rate didn’t drop. Maybe it’s just a matter of mechanics or approach or the worst luck ever. The Royals could very well know something we don’t, though we have two decades of history to prove they also might not.
From the Angels’ point of view, this move is pretty much all about dumping Santana. Brandon Sisk is already 27-years-old, and he’s a Triple-A reliever who just reached the level at age 25. As he’s moved up the minor league ladder, very slowly I might add, Sisk has maintained a relatively high strikeout rate while also walking too many people. It’s doubtful he’ll ever be a big difference maker for an Angels team that figures to be in contention most years.